Overview
ClimateRiskCheck produces property-level physical climate risk reports for Canadian residential and commercial addresses. Each report assesses flood and wildfire exposure using government open data, supplements with regional climate projections and building characteristics, and assigns an overall risk rating.
All data is sourced exclusively from Canadian federal and provincial government datasets under open government licences. No proprietary third-party risk models are used. Every report carries a data provenance table identifying the exact dataset version used at generation time.
Reports are intended for use as an informational screening tool for portfolio due diligence, lending decisions, governance documentation, and audit support. They are not a substitute for a professional flood study, environmental assessment, or insurance underwriting opinion.
Geocoding & Location Accuracy
Addresses are geocoded against a national address database, restricted to Canada. Each result carries a precision level that is mapped to a confidence label shown on every report.
| Confidence Label | Meaning |
|---|---|
| ✓ Rooftop-level | Precise match to a specific building or street address. Highest accuracy. |
| ⚠ Neighbourhood centroid | Matched to the centre of a postal code or neighbourhood. May be 50–500 m from the actual property. |
| ✗ Approximate | Low-precision match. Reports at this confidence level are rejected before a credit is consumed. |
When confidence is Neighbourhood centroid, the report displays a prominent warning. In flood risk assessment, 50 metres can be the difference between a property inside and outside a flood zone. Lenders should verify the geocoded coordinates on the attached map before relying on flood risk scores for centroid-matched addresses.
City mismatch detection runs automatically. If the city parsed from the submitted address differs from the locality returned by the geocoder (excluding known amalgamation aliases such as Toronto, North York, Scarborough), a separate verification warning is added to the report.
Flood Risk Assessment
Federal flood zone polygons from NRCan's Canada Flood Map inventory, supplemented with higher-resolution Conservation Authority flood plain maps for Ontario (TRCA, Peel, LSRCA, RVCA, CVC, MVCA, NPCA, GRCA, HCA, GSCA, NVCA, SVCA, MVC, SNC, KRCA, ORCA, CLOCA). CA maps represent the regulatory standard for Ontario floodplain delineation and are used by municipalities for development approvals. Contains information made available under Grand River Conservation Authority's Open Data Licence v2.0.
Scoring logic
The geocoded coordinate (lat/lon) is spatially joined against flood zone polygons using a two-pass approach: detailed CA portal data is queried first; if no detailed polygon intersects, a supplementary check against coarse federal CFM polygons is made before concluding Low.
Pass 1 — Detailed CA data (250 m search radius): If the point falls within a Conservation Authority polygon, the hazard zone label, estimated inundation depth, and return period are extracted and scored directly.
Pass 2 — Coarse CFM supplementary check: If no detailed polygon intersects but detailed CA data exists within 20 km (confirming the region is mapped), the scoring engine checks whether the property falls inside a federal Canada Flood Map Inventory (CFM) polygon with area < 100 km². CFM polygons are classified as coarse because they lack depth attributes and use broader delineation methods than CA regulatory maps. If a qualifying CFM polygon is found, the property is rated Moderate with a caveat noting the coarse data source and recommending verification with the local CA. The 100 km² threshold filters out broad regional CFM polygons that are not meaningful at the property level.
Jurisdiction guard: If no CA data exists within 20 km, or if the property falls within a known no-coverage jurisdiction (see Known Limitations), a Proxy Assessment or Coverage Insufficient result is returned regardless of CFM coverage.
| Rating | Criteria |
|---|---|
| Low | No flood zone polygon intersects the property (detailed CA data present within 20 km and no qualifying CFM polygon found), or estimated inundation depth < 0.3 m. |
| Moderate | Property within a mapped flood zone with estimated depth 0.3 m – 1.0 m, zone-attributed medium hazard (no depth attribute), or property inside a coarse CFM polygon (< 100 km²) where detailed CA data exists nearby but does not intersect. |
| High | Property within a mapped flood zone with estimated depth 1.0 m – 2.0 m, or zone-attributed high hazard (no depth attribute). |
| Extreme | Estimated inundation depth ≥ 2.0 m within a mapped flood zone. |
| Partial Assessment | No detailed flood zone data exists within 20 km of the property, or property is in a known no-coverage jurisdiction. Coverage reason is noted on the report (e.g. Proxy Assessment, No Regulatory Study Available). |
Return period
Where available, the flood zone polygon carries a return period (e.g. 1:100 year event). This represents the statistical annual probability of exceedance (a 1:100 year flood has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year, and a 26% chance of occurring over a 30-year mortgage).
Flood data confidence
Every report states a Flood Data Confidence level, derived from which data source produced the flood rating. It is an output field only — it never affects the flood rating or the overall rating.
| Confidence | Meaning |
|---|---|
| High | Rated from detailed Conservation Authority flood polygons at this location (including a Low rating where detailed coverage exists and the property falls outside all hazard polygons). |
| Moderate | Rated from a coarse federal Canada Flood Map Inventory polygon; not confirmed by detailed Conservation Authority mapping at this location. |
| Regional only | No detailed or coarse flood mapping at this location — the NRCan Flood Susceptibility Index regional screening signal is the only available flood signal. Regional context, not a property-level assessment. |
| None | No flood data available at any resolution for this location. |
Wildfire Exposure
Digitized perimeters of all Canadian wildfire events from 2010–2024. Used to calculate proximity of the subject property to the nearest historical burn area.
Gridded 90th-percentile Fire Weather Index values derived from 2010–2024 daily observations. FWI integrates temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation into a composite measure of fire danger. The P90 value represents severe fire weather conditions.
Scoring logic
Burn distance and FWI P90 are each scored independently to Low / Moderate / High. The final wildfire rating is the higher of the two signals. Wildfire tops out at High — there is no Extreme category for wildfire (Extreme is flood-only, requiring depth ≥ 2.0 m).
| Signal | Low | Moderate | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nearest historical burn | > 5 km | 1 – 5 km | < 1 km |
| FWI P90 (2010–2024) | ≤ 20 | 21 – 35 | > 35 |
Final rating = higher of the two signals. Example: burn at 3 km (Moderate) + FWI P90 of 38 (High) → overall wildfire rating High.
2050 Climate Risk Outlook v0.20
Every report includes a forward-looking 2050 Climate Risk Outlook section providing directional hazard trajectory signals to mid-century, consistent with OSFI Guideline B-15's requirement to assess physical climate risk horizons to 2050 and beyond. This section is supplementary — it does not affect the current-conditions flood, wildfire, or overall risk ratings.
ECCC's Downscaled Climate Scenarios dataset, providing projected changes in mean temperature, precipitation, and extreme heat days to 2050 under RCP 4.5 (moderate emissions) and RCP 8.5 (high emissions) scenarios. Assigned to the property by nearest climate region centroid.
Trajectory Classification
| Hazard | ↑ Increasing | → Broadly Stable | ↓ Decreasing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flood | Precip change > +5% | Precip change −5% to +5% | Precip change < −5% |
| Wildfire | RCP 8.5 temp rise ≥ 2.0°C or hot days ≥ 8 | Neither threshold met | — |
| Urban Heat | RCP 8.5 hot days ≥ 5 | Fewer than 5 additional hot days | — |
Wildfire and heat trajectories use the RCP 8.5 (high emissions) scenario as the planning-relevant horizon. An "Increasing" result for both is expected for virtually all addresses in Southern Ontario under current projections.
Supporting Statistics
- Temperature rise (°C): Projected mean annual temperature increase vs. 1981–2010 baseline, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5
- Precipitation change (%): Projected change in mean annual precipitation by 2050
- Additional hot days: Additional days per year exceeding 30°C by 2050, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5
Limitations
- Trajectories are regional-scale (census division), not property-level predictions.
- CanDCS-U6 is CMIP5-based (RCP scenarios). Not directly comparable to CMIP6 / SSP pathway literature.
- NRCan FSI future-scenario rasters are not yet publicly available; the flood trajectory uses precipitation change only, not a direct susceptibility index projection.
Building Information
Statistics Canada's national building footprint dataset, containing year of construction, building type, number of floors, and footprint geometry for structures across Canada. Coverage is strongest in Ontario and British Columbia; rural coverage is variable.
Matching logic
The nearest building footprint within 100 m of the geocoded coordinate is matched to the subject property. Where no building is found within that radius, the report notes the absence and recommends on-site verification. Building data is informational only and does not affect the flood or wildfire risk rating.
Attribute sourcing and floor estimation
Year of construction, building type, and floor count are sparsely populated in the source dataset — the majority of records contain no values for these fields. These are source-data gaps, not assessment errors, and are noted on the report where they occur.
Where floor count is absent but building height is available, the number of storeys is estimated at one storey per 3.0 metres of height, reflecting the Canadian residential standard. Estimated floor counts are labelled "estimated from building height" in the report to distinguish them from directly-sourced values.
Urban Sewer Flood Signal Toronto only
Toronto Water's Basement Flooding Study Areas dataset delineates the 67 sanitary subsewersheds where the City has conducted or is conducting a formal Basement Flooding Protection Study. Each polygon represents a sewer drainage catchment where documented basement flooding complaints were serious enough to trigger a structured engineering study and potential capital works program.
This dataset captures sewer backflow and combined-sewer overflow (CSO) risk — the dominant flood mechanism in older Toronto neighbourhoods — which is not captured by the federal Canada Flood Map Inventory or Conservation Authority portal data, both of which focus on riverine and surface flooding.
Signal logic
For properties within the City of Toronto administrative boundary, a spatial containment check is run against the 67 study area polygons. The result is a binary supplementary signal:
| Signal | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Elevated | Property falls within a designated study area. The subsewershed has a documented history of basement flooding complaints and is subject to a formal Toronto Water engineering study. Sewer backflow risk is elevated independently of river flood status. |
| Not Detected | Property is within Toronto but not inside a BFA polygon. Risk is reduced but not absent — BFA boundaries reflect subsewersheds formally studied, not all areas of potential risk. |
| Not Applicable | Property is outside the City of Toronto. This check does not apply. |
The urban sewer flood signal is supplementary only — it does not affect the overall risk rating, which is derived exclusively from flood zone (CFM/CA) and wildfire signals. It is presented as an additional data point for lenders and underwriters assessing Toronto properties.
Overall Risk Rating
The overall rating is derived from the flood and wildfire sub-ratings using a conservative aggregation: the overall rating equals the highest (worst) sub-rating, with a specific upgrade rule when both signals are elevated.
| Overall Rating | Derivation |
|---|---|
| Low | Both flood and wildfire are Low. |
| Moderate | The highest individual sub-rating is Moderate (neither flood nor wildfire reaches High). |
| High | The highest individual sub-rating is High (flood or wildfire, or both). |
| Extreme | Flood rating is Extreme (depth ≥ 2.0 m). Wildfire cannot produce Extreme — it is a flood-only outcome. |
| Partial Assessment | One or more dimensions returned Coverage Insufficient due to data gaps. Individual sections explain why. |
The overall rating is the higher of the flood and wildfire sub-ratings, using the order Low < Moderate < High < Extreme. If either sub-rating is Coverage Insufficient, the overall is forced to Partial Assessment.
Expected Annual Loss (EAL)
EAL translates a flood hazard rating into a dollar-denominated annual loss figure — the metric used by insurers and increasingly expected in OSFI B-15 physical risk disclosures. It is computed only when all three inputs are available: a Moderate, High, or Extreme flood rating; a flood depth estimate (metres); and a property value.
Formula
EAL = (1 / return period) × structural damage % × property value
Where return_period is the recurrence interval of the design flood event (typically 100 years), damage_pct is the fraction of structural value destroyed at that flood depth, and property_value is the assessed or estimated value of the structure.
Example: a $800,000 property at a 1-in-100-year event with 0.9 m depth → damage ≈ 21% → loss at event ≈ $168,000 → EAL ≈ $1,680/year.
Depth-damage curves
Structural damage percentages are derived from the Public Safety Canada / IBI Group residential depth-damage curves for single-family dwellings, which underpin the Canada Flood Risk Finder (Public Safety Canada, 2026). The curve maps inundation depth to percentage of structural replacement value lost:
| Depth (m) | Structural damage (%) |
|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0% |
| 0.15 | 4% |
| 0.30 | 8% |
| 0.60 | 15% |
| 0.90 | 21% |
| 1.20 | 27% |
| 1.50 | 33% |
| 1.80 | 40% |
| 2.10 | 47% |
| 2.40 | 53% |
| 3.00 | 63% |
| 4.00 | 75% |
Values between table entries are linearly interpolated. Depths above 4.0 m are capped at 75%. The curves represent single-detached residential construction typical of Canadian suburbs; they may underestimate damage for older pre-1960 construction or overestimate it for newer flood-resilient builds.
Property value sourcing
A property value can be supplied at the time of the report request. When not provided, ClimateRiskCheck uses the Statistics Canada 2021 Census median dwelling value for the nearest census division as a regional proxy. The value used and its source (client-supplied or regional median) are clearly stated on every report.
Scope and limitations
EAL covers structural damage only. It does not include: contents loss, temporary accommodation costs, business interruption, remediation or soil remediation, or landscape/driveway damage. A full economic loss estimate would typically be 1.5–2.5× the structural EAL.
EAL is computed from a single design event (the 1-in-100-year flood) and does not integrate across the full exceedance probability curve. A multi-return-period integration would yield a more precise annualized figure; this approximation is appropriate for screening-level due diligence.
Wildfire EAL is not computed in the current version — wildfire damage functions for Canadian residential construction are not yet standardized in public data sources.
2050 Climate-Adjusted EAL v0.21
When both the current EAL and CanDCS-U6 temperature projections are available, the report includes a forward-looking flood loss estimate for 2050 under two IPCC emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 — moderate emissions, and RCP 8.5 — high emissions).
Method — Clausius-Clapeyron Scaling
Extreme precipitation intensity scales with atmospheric temperature at approximately +7% per °C of warming — the ECCC-endorsed midpoint for Canadian mid-latitude stations (Mailhot et al. 2007; Cheng et al. 2014). As the climate warms, a historical 1-in-T-year rainfall event becomes more frequent, compressing its effective return period.
Adjusted return period = T / 1.07ΔT
Adjusted EAL = (1 / adjusted return period) × structural damage % × property value
where ΔT is the CanDCS-U6 ensemble median temperature rise by 2050 relative to the 1981–2010 baseline, drawn from the nearest census division centroid.
IDF Data Source
Precipitation intensity baseline comes from the nearest Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Engineering Climate Datasets IDF station — Ontario coverage, 429 stations, Open Government Licence. Stations beyond 100 km are excluded.
The ECCC IDF values represent statistically homogenized historical records — the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling layer adds the forward-looking climate adjustment on top.
What Is Shown
The report displays two adjusted EAL figures alongside the current baseline EAL: one for RCP 4.5 and one for RCP 8.5, together with the effective return period for each scenario and the name of the ECCC IDF station used. Structural damage assumptions and property value are held constant — only the return period changes. A named EAL multiplier (e.g. 1.4× / 1.9×) is derived from the ratio of adjusted EAL to base EAL and displayed as a single headline metric — suitable for board reporting and OSFI Guideline B-15 mid-century physical risk disclosure. The multiplier is shown whenever adjusted EAL is available, regardless of the CanDCS-U6 flood trajectory direction.
Limitations
- Station coverage is limited to Ontario (429 stations). Properties outside Ontario do not receive an adjusted EAL.
- The 7%/°C scaling factor is a regional midpoint; local topographic and storm-track effects may cause actual changes to deviate from this rate.
- CanDCS-U6 ΔT values are ensemble medians at the census division level, not property-level projections.
- Flood depth is not re-estimated under future climate; structural damage percentage is held at its current-conditions value.
- This is a single-design-event approximation — the same limitation that applies to the base EAL.
Geographic Coverage
The table below shows which datasets are active for each region. Coverage is determined by what open data is published — not by our scoring model. Where a region shows partial or no coverage, properties receive a Partial Assessment with an explanatory note in the report.
✅ Full · ⚠️ Partial · — Not covered · 🔜 Planned
| Dataset | Purpose | Toronto | Ottawa | GTA / 905 | Hamilton / Halton | Other ON | National |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Portal Flood Zones | Riverine flood (1-in-100 yr), depth + return period | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ⚠️ | ⚠️ | — |
| Canada Flood Map (CFM) | National coarse flood inventory — used as fallback when no CA data within 20 km | ⚠️ | ⚠️ | ⚠️ | ⚠️ | ⚠️ | ✅ |
| Basement Flooding Study Areas | Urban sewer / combined-sewer overflow risk | ✅ | — | — | — | — | — |
| CWFIS Burned Area + Historical FWI | Wildfire proximity and historical fire weather exposure | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| CanDCS-U6 Climate Projections | Regional climate change projections to 2050 (temperature, precipitation) | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| StatCan ODB v3.0 Buildings | Building footprint and basic attributes | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| NRCan Hydrological Network (NHN) | Watercourse proximity — used as flood proxy where CA data is absent | ✅ | ⚠️ | ✅ | ✅ | ⚠️ | ✅ |
| StatCan Median Dwelling Value | Property value proxy for Expected Annual Loss — census-division level | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| Urban Heat Island | Land surface temperature from Landsat satellite imagery — GTA, Ottawa, Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, and Niagara Peninsula | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ⚠️ | ⚠️ | — |
| NRCan Flood Susceptibility Index | Regional flood susceptibility screening — NRCan 2000–2023 composite. Supplementary signal; does not affect rating. | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | — |
| Basement Flooding Study Areas — Ottawa / Peel | Urban sewer / combined-sewer overflow risk — planned expansion | — | 🔜 | 🔜 | — | — | — |
"Other ON" CA Portal flood coverage includes: the Grand River watershed (Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge, Guelph, Brantford, Fergus, Dunnville) via GRCA; Barrie and Simcoe County via LSRCA; Listowel and Wingham via MVCA; Grey County and Owen Sound via GSCA; Bruce–Grey County (Walkerton, Hanover, Port Elgin, Southampton) via SVCA; Alliston and Wasaga Beach area via NVCA; Kawartha Lakes (Lindsay, Fenelon Falls, Bobcaygeon) via KRCA; Peterborough and Lakefield via ORCA; and Durham Region east (Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa, Clarington, Pickering) via CLOCA Regulated Area (includes Lynde Creek Phase 2, FHIMP-funded, completed 2025). These sources use zone-only regulatory data — properties within a regulated area are rated a maximum of High; Extreme ratings require measured depth data. Ottawa ✅ flood coverage includes RVCA (downtown / Rideau Valley), MVC (west Ottawa / Kanata / Carp River corridor), and SNC (east Ottawa / Prescott-Russell). Hamilton and Burlington are covered via HCA Regulated Areas — zone-only, maximum High. Niagara Peninsula is covered via NPCA Regulation Floodplain — zone-only. Halton Hills, Oakville, and Milton (Conservation Halton jurisdiction) and Elgin County are not covered. Properties in gap areas receive a Partial Assessment with a coverage note.
Urban Heat Island ⚠️ for Hamilton/Halton: Hamilton and Burlington are covered; Oakville, Milton, and Halton Hills are not. Urban Heat Island ⚠️ for Other ON: Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, Guelph, Brantford, and the Niagara Peninsula are covered; Barrie, London, Windsor, and Northern Ontario are not.
Watercourse proximity data covers Greater Toronto and Halton; broader Ontario coverage is planned.
Known Limitations
- London (UTRCA) — the Flooding Hazard Limit layer is not published as open data; the available Regulation Limit layer is not a floodline and carries a restrictive licence.
- Elgin County (LPRCA, LTVCA, KCCA, CCCA) — data exists but portals require further investigation; no open floodline layer confirmed as of June 2026.
- Northern Ontario — no Conservation Authority open flood mapping coverage.
Addresses in these regions receive Coverage Insufficient with the NRCan Flood Susceptibility Index regional screening signal where available (Flood Data Confidence = "Regional only") or no flood signal at all ("None"). These gaps are re-checked periodically as Conservation Authorities expand their open data programmes.
Version History
| Version | Date | Changes |
|---|---|---|
| v0.23 | June 2026 | Added CLOCA Regulated Area (Central Lake Ontario Conservation Authority) flood data covering Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa, Clarington, and Pickering (Durham Region east). Single dissolved multi-polygon (78 km²) including Lynde Creek Phase 2 (FHIMP-funded, completed 2025). Zone-only; properties within the regulated area are rated a maximum of High. CLOCA removed from Known Limitations. No scoring threshold or logic changes. |
| v0.22 | June 2026 | Added 2050 EAL Multiplier as a named output. Ratio of adjusted EAL to base EAL (e.g. 1.4× / 1.9× for RCP 4.5 / 8.5) displayed in the EAL section. Forward-looking note now shown whenever adjusted EAL is available, regardless of flood trajectory direction. No scoring logic changes. |
| v0.21 | June 2026 | Added 2050 Climate-Adjusted EAL. Clausius-Clapeyron precipitation scaling (+7%/°C, ECCC-endorsed midpoint) applied using the nearest ECCC IDF station (RASM2024, Ontario, 429 stations, Open Government Licence) and CanDCS-U6 temperature projections. Produces an adjusted return period and adjusted EAL range for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Supplementary — does not affect any current-conditions rating. |
| v0.20 | June 2026 | Added 2050 Climate Risk Outlook section. Directional hazard trajectory signals (↑ Increasing / → Broadly Stable / ↓ Decreasing) for Flood, Wildfire, and Urban Heat, derived from CanDCS-U6 ensemble median projections at the nearest census division. Flood trajectory from precipitation change vs. baseline; wildfire from RCP 8.5 temperature rise (≥2.0°C) or additional hot days (≥8); heat from RCP 8.5 additional days above 30°C (≥5). Supplementary only — does not affect any current-conditions rating. |
| v0.19 | June 2026 | Added four Conservation Ontario flood datasets: MVC Regulatory Floodplain (Mississippi Valley CA — west Ottawa, Kanata, Carp River corridor — 234 polygons), SNC Regulation Area (South Nation Conservation — east Ottawa, Prescott-Russell — 175 polygons), KRCA Regulated Areas (Kawartha Region CA — Lindsay, Kawartha Lakes, Fenelon Falls, Bobcaygeon — 1,837 polygons), and ORCA Floodplain (Otonabee Region CA — Peterborough, Lakefield, Selwyn — 79 polygons). All zone-only; all properties within a regulated area are rated a maximum of High. No scoring threshold or logic changes. |
| v0.18 | June 2026 | Added three Grey County Conservation Authority flood datasets: GSCA Regulations (Grey County / Owen Sound — 2,859 polygons), NVCA Floodplains (Nottawasaga Valley / Alliston / Wasaga Beach — 138 polygons), and SVCA Approximate Regulated Areas (Bruce–Grey County / Walkerton / Hanover / Port Elgin — 271 polygons). All zone-only; properties within a regulated area rated a maximum of High. Elgin County added to Known Limitations. No scoring threshold or logic changes. |
| v0.17 | June 2026 | Urban Heat Island coverage extended to Hamilton/Burlington (HCA area), Kitchener-Waterloo/Cambridge/Guelph/Brantford (GRCA area), and Niagara Peninsula (St. Catharines, Niagara Falls, Welland, Fort Erie, Grimsby). Data source: USGS Landsat C2L2 Surface Temperature (same calibration as Ottawa). No scoring logic or threshold changes — supplementary signal coverage expansion only. |
| v0.16 | June 2026 | Added Hamilton Conservation Authority (HCA) Regulated Areas as an integrated flood data source — 138 polygons covering Hamilton and Burlington. Zone-only data: all properties within a regulated area are rated a maximum of High. Hamilton removed from Known Limitations. No threshold or scoring logic changes. |
| v0.15 | June 2026 | Added Grand River Conservation Authority (GRCA) Regulatory Floodplain as an integrated flood data source — 4,057 polygons covering Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge, Guelph, Brantford, Fergus, and Dunnville (May 2026 data, GRCA Open Data Licence v2). Zone-only data: Floodway and One Zone polygons rated High; Two Zone Fringe polygons rated Moderate. Rating caps at High. Kitchener-Waterloo removed from Known Limitations. No threshold or scoring logic changes. |
| v0.14 | June 2026 | Added Flood Data Confidence indicator (High / Moderate / Regional only / None) to every report, reflecting the resolution of data behind the flood rating. No scoring logic changes. Added documented structural flood data gaps (Niagara, London, CLOCA, Northern Ontario) to Known Limitations. (CLOCA subsequently filled in v0.23; Niagara filled in v0.16.) |
| v0.13 | June 2026 | Added NRCan Flood Susceptibility Index (FSI) supplementary signal for Southern Ontario. Data: NRCan present-day composite 2000–2023 (Open Government Licence), resampled to 300 m. Thresholds calibrated against known addresses: Low < 35, Moderate 35–79, High ≥ 80. Most useful for Coverage Insufficient addresses. NRCan "regional screening only" caveat shown on all reports. Does not affect the overall flood rating or overall risk rating. |
| v0.12 | June 2026 | Urban Heat Island coverage extended to Ottawa / National Capital Region. Data source: USGS Landsat Collection 2 Level-2 Surface Temperature via Microsoft Planetary Computer. Same thresholds as GTA: Low < 30°C, Moderate 30–40°C, High > 40°C. No scoring logic changes — supplementary signal coverage expansion only. |
| v0.11 | May 2026 | Added Urban Heat Island signal. TRCA Average Surface Temperature 2020 raster (Landsat 8, 30 m) used to classify land surface temperature at the geocoded coordinate. Thresholds calibrated against the GTA distribution: Low < 30°C (parks, tree canopy, water-adjacent), Moderate 30–40°C (typical urban surface), High > 40°C (dense pavement, dark roofing). Coverage: TRCA jurisdiction — Toronto, York Region, southern Peel, Durham, and southern Simcoe. Properties outside coverage return Not Applicable. Signal is supplementary and does not affect the overall risk rating. |
| v0.10 | May 2026 | Added Toronto urban sewer flood signal. City of Toronto Basement Flooding Study Areas dataset (67 sanitary subsewershed polygons) used to flag combined-sewer overflow and sewer backflow risk — a flood mechanism not captured by regulatory floodplain data. For Toronto properties, produces a supplementary Elevated / Not Detected signal. Data refreshed daily from the City of Toronto Open Data portal. Does not affect the overall risk rating. |
| v0.9 | May 2026 | Flood scoring: added secondary check against federal Canada Flood Map Inventory (CFM) polygons. When detailed CA data exists within 20 km but does not intersect the subject property, the scoring engine checks whether the property falls inside a CFM polygon smaller than 100 km². If so, the property is rated Moderate with a coarse-data caveat. Polygons ≥ 100 km² are excluded as too broad for property-level assessment. Jurisdiction guard repositioned to apply after the coarse CFM check, correctly handling properties in jurisdictions adjacent to loaded CA sources. Fixes false Low ratings for Peel Region / Mississauga addresses inside CFM flood zones. |
| v0.7 | May 2026 | Added Expected Annual Loss (EAL) for flood-rated properties. Structural damage interpolated from Public Safety Canada / IBI Group residential depth-damage curves. Formula: EAL = (1 / return_period) × damage_pct × property_value. Property value defaults to StatCan 2021 Census median dwelling value by census division; appraiser- or lender-supplied value takes precedence when provided. Representative depth used for zone-only polygons: High → 1.0 m, Moderate → 0.3 m, Extreme → 2.0 m — clearly labelled on the report. Added NRCan National Hydrological Network watercourse proximity as a supplementary signal for Coverage Insufficient addresses. |
| v0.6 | May 2026 | Added jurisdiction guard to prevent cross-boundary false Low ratings. Halton Region (Conservation Halton jurisdiction) now correctly returns Coverage Insufficient rather than a Low rating derived from adjacent Peel Region polygons. Hamilton/Burlington boundary handling also corrected. |
| v0.5 | May 2026 | Building storey count estimated from structure height when not directly available in source data (estimated as height ÷ 3.0 m per floor), with estimates clearly labelled as such on the report. Documented attribute availability rates for the building dataset in Known Limitations. |
| v0.4 | May 2026 | Corrected and clarified scoring threshold documentation. Flood: Low < 0.3 m, Moderate 0.3–1.0 m, High 1.0–2.0 m, Extreme ≥ 2.0 m. Wildfire: independent burn-distance (5 km / 1 km) and FWI (20 / 35) thresholds, higher of the two signals governs. Overall: clarified Partial Assessment definition and that Moderate + Moderate resolves to Moderate overall. |
| v0.3 | May 2026 | Added geocode confidence badge (rooftop / centroid / approximate) to PDF report header. Added public methodology page. Flood data updated (8,353 polygons). |
| v0.2 | Apr 2026 | City mismatch detection added to geocoder. Static satellite map embedded in PDF. Interactive map added to web app result panel. All data sources loaded to production. |
| v0.1 | Apr 2026 | Initial release. Flood zone scoring, wildfire exposure, climate context, and building information. Credit-based billing with API key authentication. |
Data refresh schedule
CWFIS wildfire datasets (NBAC, FWI) are updated annually after each fire season. Flood zone data is refreshed as Conservation Authority portals publish updated polygons — typically quarterly. The ODB buildings dataset is updated when Statistics Canada releases new versions. All dataset versions are recorded in the pipeline audit log and printed on every report.